Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 51.493769 56.982169 63.163595 70.718267 79.810822 90.547536 104.413019
2025-02-09 43.961525 51.079305 59.777909 71.469652 87.245676 108.580354 141.203300
2025-02-16 39.068232 46.762203 56.657475 70.820487 91.537242 122.618541 177.505018
2025-02-23 35.541604 43.464985 54.045888 69.936846 94.738509 135.409854 217.654193
2025-03-02 32.595447 40.502228 51.363808 68.295506 96.137152 145.376932 258.267922
2025-03-09 30.390259 38.282441 49.393553 67.297980 98.186167 156.946206 310.662530
2025-03-16 28.048045 35.646559 46.517297 64.425257 96.349678 160.317204 345.523061
2025-03-23 27.416372 35.377040 47.086478 67.142589 105.095535 189.073523 490.526933
2025-03-30 26.112721 34.010440 45.828891 66.577446 107.403496 204.142827 615.105562
2025-04-06 24.842821 32.599678 44.369994 65.457008 108.332716 216.211907 756.530376
2025-04-13 23.368075 30.789953 42.138177 62.698408 105.282385 216.226349 833.108276
2025-04-20 23.101705 30.797644 42.826845 65.349268 114.655939 257.982102 1429.312840
2025-04-27 22.870462 30.880819 43.708482 68.631925 126.853977 321.322776 3498.390181
2025-05-04 22.211947 30.251119 43.339193 69.432365 133.309144 371.143771 9988.596205
2025-05-11 21.388981 29.305217 42.342806 68.815080 135.869035 407.477316 47566.804717
2025-05-18 20.602476 28.373432 41.300185 67.970697 137.617127 443.023820 NaN
2025-05-25 19.773365 27.329747 39.987857 66.401354 136.905626 465.104730 NaN
2025-06-01 19.093121 26.498842 39.005068 65.447106 137.877636 500.801298 NaN
2025-06-08 18.210913 25.296603 37.282917 62.696990 132.701473 489.254627 NaN
2025-06-15 18.106056 25.382944 37.916859 65.298424 145.442363 639.108027 NaN
2025-06-22 17.601782 24.771940 37.217134 64.757608 147.566616 707.098490 NaN
2025-06-29 17.063203 24.080731 36.328255 63.685055 147.583525 756.590675 NaN
2025-07-06 16.363169 23.090616 34.829669 61.042373 141.377536 723.052242 NaN